Why I think it'll be Kamala Harris, and sooner than many think
She has every advantage against any potential competitors for the nomination, and she may not have to wait 'til January to measure the drapes
The writing’s on the wall. Biden’s on his way out of the presidential race. Once long-denied realities are allowed to take hold, they build a momentum for change that becomes unstoppable. It was probably his handlers’ intention to set this chain of events in motion by proposing such an unusually early debate in the campaign season, well before the party conventions. They knew they needed to usher him out ASAP. A dramatic public display of senility was a sure way to do it. Their biggest fear may have been that he’d have a relatively good performance, as people slipping into dementia sometimes do.
But whether by design or stupidity, it seems clear that nothing will keep Biden in the race now. And no one is better positioned to take up the reins than Kamala Harris. As the incumbent vice president and a Black woman, in addition to whatever other attributes she might have in her favor, it seems unthinkable that the Democratic Party would dare skip so obvious a successor. It would be at their peril in a year in which Trump is polling historically well among Black voters.
Were she confirmed as the nominee at the party’s convention in August she would immediately have access to the $90+ million dollars in campaign funds the Biden-Harris campaign has amassed thus far, giving her a huge funding advantage that’ll be sorely needed in a slugfest with Trump.
One other advantage she might have is one that hasn’t been discussed much but I think soon will be. She may well be the incumbent president soon. Once the hurdle has been passed of getting Biden out of the race, I think pressure will quickly build for him to resign the presidency in relatively short order. The reasoning will be that if he’s already unfit to run for reelection, it follows that he’s already unfit to serve as president, let alone in a future term.
Never mind that the president’s handlers have long been making the decisions anyway. There’s still a mythos in America that presidents really do run things and make the big decisions. I don’t think that’s true, and I’m not just speaking of Biden. The federal executive branch over which a president nominally serves as chief executive has become far too big and involved in too many things for any one man (or woman), or even a small group of men and women, to manage. They’re totally dependent upon the information and choices fed to them by the powerful and enormous departments and agencies that are in turn captured by the industries they supposedly regulate.
Whatever the real power structure behind the scenes, the necessary belief that presidents actually preside, and thus need to have the mental fitness to do so, will force events and culminate in the Biden presidency being cut short. By then, Harris will have emerged as the only realistic successor for the Democrats and it will be urged that Biden resigning will be to her benefit as well.
There’s a certain gravitas conferred on anyone who inhabits the office of president, whether deserved or not. Harris will be able to run as an incumbent already doing the job, and because there won’t be enough time for her to make too many missteps prior to the election, her installation will help undermine any arguments that she’s incapable. It didn’t work for Ford in ‘76, but he had the Nixon pardon hanging around his neck and a fresh, upstart challenger in the congenial Georgia governor Jimmy Carter. Harris will have a retread, aging Trump.
It’s ironic that Harris is the best choice the Democrats have right now. Her 2020 campaign was a disaster despite initially favorable media coverage when she essentially called Biden a racist at an early debate. She and her campaign were so inept that she had to drop out early to avoid it all crashing down around her when the primary votes actually came in. It’s telling that what she’s most known for these days are her gaffes, from spouting indecipherable word salad in speeches to peppering her appearances with episodes of weird, inappropriately timed laughter.
But people will do well to remember that Biden was forced out of the 1988 presidential race due to charges of plagiarism. His campaign hadn’t really been catching fire anyway. It obviously didn’t mean the end of his hopes to one day ascend to the highest office. Maybe her redemption will come much earlier despite being much less earned.
Beyond that, the Democrats just don’t have many good choices among their party’s elite. Gavin Newsom is often cited, but he’s too California for much of the rest of the country and is presiding over a disaster in his home state, people leaving in droves. Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer is already in a tough reelection race that’s by no means a sure thing. Pete Buttigieg has become a nonentity since 2020. Hillary Clinton’s time has come and gone (please, God, let that be true). Michele Obama has never shown any real sign that she wants to run for president.
It’s unclear to me whether the most likely scenario is the party coalescing around Harris quickly and forcing Biden out of office even before the convention, or whether they’ll want to make a show of having a contested convention and need Biden to remain at the helm at least until that happens. One thing is for sure, though, if Harris ascends to the top job before the convention, she’ll be the nominee.
One way or another, I think it’s Kamala’s for the taking. After that, God knows what.
Richie Graham is based in Little Rock Arkansas USA and writes from a free-market libertarian, anti-interventionist perspective.